Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Scholar: the frequency of false rape complaints remains unknown

Few people write extensively about rape aside from (1) extreme feminists in the blogosphere, (2) sexual assault counslors whose livelihood depends on the perception that rape is at least common and more likely rampant, and (3) feminist scholars who have taken a personal interest in the issue.  Nothing needs to be written about the first group since their take on rape is well-known, and few even attempt to do more than parrot information gleaned from the third group.  The bias arising from the financial interest of members of the second group disqualifies them from offering anything useful to the public discourse about rape. The third group, comprised of feminist rape scholars, furnishes the intellectual firepower for the first and second groups, and it is that third group that dominates the public discourse on rape.

The scholars' world view, to varying degress, is that our social structure is patriarchal, marked by males dominating females, with sexist laws that promote said domination.  Their take on rape is consistent with that world view.  One scholar, Professor Aya Gruber has published an important article in the Washington Law Review titled "Rape, Feminism, and the War on Crime,"  84 Wash. L. Rev. 581 (November 2009).  It is interesting for a variety of reasons. Since our focus is false rape claims, it is that aspect of her article that we'll discuss.

We often stress on this site that the language one uses in the rape milieu is important. It not only provides a window into the soul of the writer, but it dictates what casual readers learn from the writing.  At the end of this post is an excerpt from Professor Gruber's article, found on pages 595-600 of her article, and I urge readers to look at the langauge she uses. 

The article attempts to fairly marshall objective information about our current knowledge of the prevalence of false rape claims. Prof. Gruber properly states that "the statistics on false rape accusation widely vary" and she notes that "'as a scientific matter, the frequency of false rape complaints to police or other legal authorities remains unknown.. . . .'"  To her credit, she cites Mr. Greer's and Prof. Kanin's work in footnotes, also excerpted below. 

Despite this, Prof. Gruber encrusts her scholarship with the conclusory language of the feminist movement that insists the image of rape accuser as "vindictive shrew" is a myth.

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I certainly can't make the blanket statement that rape accusers are "vindictive shrews."  But asserting that it as a "myth" and leaving it at that is inaccurate because of what it omits, and because of what it suggests.

First, repeating this alleged myth is at least unnecessary and possibly disingenuous. Its underlying premise is that rape accusers are, to this day, viewed as dishonest or untrustworthy.  While that might have been true in the past, my extensive review of rape cases, and especially cases where rape claims are eventually found to be false, suggests that it is no longer true. Rape accusers are afforded instant credibility by the police, the news media, and the general public. The fact that juries might have doubts about uncorroborated claims speaks more to the burden of proof and the evidence of particular cases.

Case after case, illustrated on this website, underscore the destructive power of even far-fetched rape accusations unsupported by other evidence.  The extreme reputational and other harm to countless men and boys from even disingenuous rape claims attests to the instant credibility afforded rape accusers.  This reputational harm is ignored by feminist scholars, and it is a principal reason we started this website.

The insistence that this myth is alive and well has led to a police and media backlash in far too many quarters where the mere accusation of rape is accepted as true because it's politically incorrect to do otherwise. When a rape accusation is automatically deemed true, the man or boy accused is automatically deemed a rapist. The trial is over even before it has begun, and the man or boy is destroyed in the court of last resort: the court of public opinion. Too many police officers are quick to arrest based on uncorroborated assertions of lone accusers and despite the availabilty of unchecked evidence that fairly rules out the claim. The Hofstra incident, which we wrote about extensively, comes to mind.

Second, to insist that it is a myth to view rape accusers as "vindictive shrews" seems to suggest that the opposite is more likely true, and that rape accusers should be automatically believed. This, of course, is the view posited by extreme feminists, and it is based on their insistence that "women don't lie about rape" (clearly a myth as some, and perhaps many women do lie about rape). Prof. Gruber herself concludes that it is impossible to state with certainty the extent of the false rape problem. Given that fact, and despite the extreme political incorrectness of the assertion, it cannot be ruled out that rape accusers are mostly liars.

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We need to approach rape claims from the paradigm of  objectivity.  Women need to be encouraged to report rape, but men and boys accused of rape must not have their good names destroyed before an investigation reveals that they have committed rape.  As we have said repeatedly, it is possible to be concerned about both rape and false rape claims. Sadly, the persons who dominate the public discourse about rape assume there is no need for concern about the latter. To disabuse them of this notion, they would do well to spend several weeks reading through the actual cases of false rape claims chronicled on a daily basis on this site.

HERE IS THE EXCERPT FROM PROF. GRUBER'S ARTICLE -- A. Gruber,"Rape, Feminism, and the War on Crime," 84 Wash. L. Rev. 581, 595-600 (November 2009):

"While eliminating formal legal barriers to prosecution and publicizing the violent nature of rape did much to shape society's condemnation of paradigmatic rape, it did less to advance the cause of "nonparadigmatic" victims - victims of rapes without physical injuries, victims acquainted with defendants, and victims in sexual professions. This is because such complainants face largely de facto obstacles to prosecution created by lingering sexist norms. Although in modern times even an unchaste woman or vindictive shrew will be believed if raped by a stranger or terribly injured, rape myths still profoundly influence nonparadigmatic rape trials. People continue to believe that women who dress and behave in sexual ways deserve to be raped. Today, respected media commentators show no hesitation in slinging bafflingly sexist attacks at high profile rape complainants: Kobe Bryant's accuser was no more than a "mountain trash slut," and the Duke complainant just a lying "crypto-hooker." Chastity ideals persist even in our highly sexualized Girls Gone Wild society. Co-eds still widely justify their open sexual communication or activity by overconsumption of alcohol that induced them to act in a manner inconsistent with gender paradigms.


"In addition, the vindictive shrew myth continues to pervade nonparadigmatic rape trials, leading jurors to require evidence of corroboration despite elimination of the formal requirement. Some contend that the belief that women lie about rape is no more than a "Bayesian" conclusion based on empirical evidence, and is not a product of sexism. [FOOTNOTE 84: SEE TEXT BELOW] Nonetheless, the statistics on false rape accusation widely vary [FOOTNOTE 85: SEE TEXT BELOW] and "as a scientific matter, the frequency of false rape complaints to police or other legal authorities remains unknown." Continued adherence to the shrew myth is bolstered by the media publicizing cases of false reporting, in which accused date rapists play the role of folk heroes - innocent boys tragically charged by vindictive women. Today, typing "false rape accusations" into Google will produce far more articles with headlines screaming that false reporting is an "alarming national trend" than articles targeted toward dispelling the myth. [FOOTNOTE 88: SEE TEXT BELOW]
"Feminists recognized that nonparadigmatic rapes were underreported and underpunished because the date rape trial had become known as a locus of victim trauma and embarrassment, more concerned with reinforcing myths than determining consent or force. Moreover, prevalent stereotypes affected judges' management of cases and caused juries to unfairly acquit either because they mistakenly concluded there was consent or believed the victim deserved it. As a consequence, feminists advocated changes in the rape law that would reflect the reality of stereotyping and subtle sexism, despite the apparent achievement of formal equality."
 
FOOTNOTES:
 n84. See, e.g., Edward Greer, The Truth Behind Legal Dominance Feminism's "Two Percent False Rape Claim" Figure, 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 947, 948-49 (2000) (arguing that rape reform agenda might be reasonable if false reporting were rare, but because it is frequent, feminist rape efforts "are truly destructive"). Bayesian theory posits that conditional probabilities can be calculated mathematically. See James Joyce, Bayes' Theorem, in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Edward N. Zalta ed., Fall 2003), http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bayes-theorem/#3. I use "Bayesian" as a description of the "logic" that, for example, fear of African Americans is a necessary and non-racist consequence of probabilistic reasoning about blacks and crime. Jody D. Armour, Race Ipsa Loquitur: Of Reasonable Racists, Intelligent Bayesians, and Involuntary Negrophobes, 46 Stan. L. Rev. 781, 790-91 (1994).


 n85. Reports range from finding false rape claims to be surprisingly rare to astoundingly frequent. Compare Brownmiller, supra note 50, at 387 (noting that only two percent of rape claims are false), with Eugene J. Kanin, False Rape Allegations, 23 Archives Sexual Behav. 81, 84 (1994) (reporting study of small town in which forty-one percent of "disposed" rape cases involved victim recantation). The FBI reported in 1997 that eight percent of rapes were "unfounded." Fed. Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports for the United States 26 (1997), available at http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/Cius_97/97crime/97crime.pdf [hereinafter FBI Crime Report]. 1997 was apparently the last time the FBI reported statistics for "unfounded" rapes. See Fed. Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm (last visited Sept. 18, 2009). "Unfounded" does not mean "false," but only that police decided the case was not pursuable, a decision that itself could be influenced by gender stereotypes. See Prompt Complaint, supra note 34, at 985-86 ("Police may think a rape claim is false or unfounded if the victim had a prior relationship with the attacker, used drugs or alcohol at the time of the attack, lacked visible signs of injury, delayed notifying police, did not have a rape exam, blames herself for the rape, or did not immediately conceive of the assault as a rape.").
. . . .
n88. The first several hits on a Google search for the keywords, "false rape accusation" performed in September 2009, included "FOXNews.com - False Rape Accusations May Be More Common Than Thought"; "GlennSacks.com [-] Research Shows False Accusations of Rape Common"; "Ananda Answers - An alarming national trend - False Rape Allegations"; and "Salon Newsreal [-] Who says women never lie about rape?" No websites on the first page involved establishing false rape reporting as a myth. One website went as far as saying, "False allegations [of rape] are the feminists' "Silver Bullet,' making feminism, an abomination before God, responsible directly for most of our excess prison population." The Christian Party, One Third of the World's Prison Population, http://www.christianparty.net/prison.htm (last visited Sept. 18, 2009).

22 comments:

Snark said...

So what she's saying is, we don't know how frequent false rape claims are - it could be 1% or 99% or anything in between - BUT let's act as if it's 0% and always believe the accuser.

Morally reprehensible.

slwerner said...

People continue to believe that women who dress and behave in sexual ways deserve to be raped. -- A. Gruber

Who are these “People”? I keeping hearing that they exist, but I’ve yet to meet a single one. I’ve never actually heard anyone, at anytime, say that a woman deserved to be raped – for any reason at all, including the way she dressed or acted.

Now I have heard plenty of people, mostly women, who say that certain men (presumed guilty of some crime) deserved to be raped in prison. Now, that’s actually even joked about, as well as said in the most serious way.

Again, I’ve never heard one single solitary person, man or woman, actually say that any women ever deserved to be raped.

The only instances in which I’ve ever heard it said were those instances in which of rape culture feminists was declaring that men go around saying it. Now that is something I’ve actually seen/heard/experienced numerous times.

More BS from Gruber:

” Today, respected media commentators show no hesitation in slinging bafflingly sexist attacks at high profile rape complainants: Kobe Bryant's accuser was no more than a "mountain trash slut," and the Duke complainant just a lying "crypto-hooker."”

Which MSM commentators EVER said any such thing (many bloggers did, of course – and rightly so – but no one from the MSM that I’m aware of). Any of you “Rape Culture” believing lurkers out there care to try to find a single instance to back up the professor? Jarrod?

Finally, Gruber gets around to letting the truth slip out:

” Co-eds still widely justify their open sexual communication or activity by overconsumption of alcohol that induced them to act in a manner inconsistent with gender paradigms.”

I cannot recall how many times I’ve made the point, and to just how many people – girls drink and do drugs SPECIFICALLY to lower their own inhibitions so as to have free-wheeling sex. Many even brag about doing just that on their own web spaces. And, it’s not just me saying it – it’s the police who’ve become much more savvy about such thing, and now routinely search for personal pages of alleged victims. The victim of one man who was convicted of having sex with an underage girl (the victim) had a facebook page on which she proclaimed herself to be older than she actually was, and stated outright that she was looking for men for alcohol and sex. I’ve heard about dozens of similar cases.

Why people (and, I’m including you, Georgia Girl, now that you’re back) still continue to believe that it’s men, and men alone, that ply women with alcohol in order to get them to have sex amazes me. Are they completely blind to the mountains of evidence, readily available, that women and underage girls are actively looking to hook-up for sex, drugs, and alcohol?

Many of those same people also seem to believe that women don’t lie about rape for revenge (vindictive shrews), for excuses for their own illicit (sexual) behaviors, for attention, and for (victims assistance) money.

Apparently, Gruber believes if she can just pretend that all FRA’s are of the vindictive shrew variety, it will be easier to “spin” the not all women are like that mantra WRT FRA’s.

Pierce Harlan said...

slwerner, the so-called rape "myths" seem to be straw-men that rape feminists use to justify insisting that rape accusers be automatically believed.

Anonymous said...

Speaking as one of the falsely accused.....

I maintain that it is a complete fallacy that "the frequency of false rape complaints remains unknown."

The conviction rape for rapes reported to the police in the UK is approximately 6%.

The number of rapes reported to police in the UK has been rising on an exponential scale.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44818000/gif/_44818750_rape_squads_226.gif

The last year we have solid figures for (and the 6% conviction rate) indicate that there were 16,000 rapes recorded to the police.

INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN GUILTY.

This is a FUNDAMENTAL legal principle, a "not guilty" verdict does NOT mean "got away with it"

It means NOT GUILTY.

It means DID NOT DO X

It means nobody, after hearing ALL the evidence, thought you did it.

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So, let's get back to the 2004 figures for the UK, please note well. these are official government statistics.

16,000 reported rapes (100%)
12,800 dropped by police (80%)
960 dropped by CPS (6%)
2,240 proceed to trial (14%)

Of those 2,240 (14%) that went to trial...

960 (6% of total) not guilty.
1,280 (8% of total) guilty.

of those 12,800 (80% of total)dropped by police....

2,688 (21%) insufficient evidence
2,176 (17%) complaint withdrawn (by alleged victim)
2,176 (17%) complainant refused to complete initial interview
1,664 (13%) (alleged) offender not identified
1,536 (12%) FALSE ALLEGATION***
640 (5%) no evidence of assault
256 (2%) no prospect of conviction
128 (1%) not in public interest
1,536 (12%) other / unknown.

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OK, worst possible case scenario / interpretation.

1,536, or 12% of all cases dropped by police, which is 9.6% of all reported rapes, are FALSE ALLEGATIONS, this is the government / police's own OFFICIAL NUMBERS.

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Now, CONSERVATIVE logical, thinking, sane, human beings interpretation.

We have to add in the 640 + 256 + 128 for no evidence, no prospect and not in public interest.

2,560, which is 20% of all cases dropped by police, or 16% of all reported rapes. are false.

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Now, my interpretation, as someone who has been on the inside looking out, so I have a FAR better idea than any professor sat in a university.

13,760, or 86% of all reported rapes, basically every single reported rape that DOES NOT EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR AS TRIAL, is a false accusation.

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So, do NOT try and tell me that "the frequency of false rape complaints remains unknown"

It is known, to within 1%

Depending on your personal viewpoints and perspectives, the actual number is somewhere between a LOW of 9.6% to a high of 86-94%, with a conservative median number around 16%

THESE ARE FACTS.

AfOR

Anonymous said...

slwerner

I have been around women that have been drinking and some get REALLY sexually aggressive.

This is something a lot of women an some men do not realize.

I have seen this and been on the other end of it too many times.

And that same woman who acts like that can turn right around and play the victim.

Afor

I like your post.

The amount of false claims is no doubt really high. I think just based on what you posed there it is likely 75% to 95% false.

Archivist said...

AfOR, as you know, we advocate that we only talk about rape cases for which we are reasonably certain about what really happened. We shouldn't talk about accusations.

We are reasonably certain that 15% were rapes since that's the percentage of claims that end in conviction (even though some innocent males are convicted -- for the sake of argument, we'll concede 15%); on the other end of the spectrum, we are reasonably certain that a certain percentage are false. Now the false percentage varies from study to study, but -- plug in any of the legitimate studies (meaning, any study not conducted by someone with a bias) and the percentage of false claims IS STAGGERING.

The feminists do this neat trick of including actual rapes AND ALL RAPE CLAIMS FOR WHICH WE DON'T KNOW WHAT REALLY HAPPENED in the "rape" column. The only fair and honest thing to do is leave out of the equation all those claims for which we don't know what really happened.

Anonymous said...

archivist, please note, my figures are ACTUAL UK POLICE AND GOVERNMENT NUMBERS.

Even going by those numbers, 9.6% of all reported rapes were, ACCORDING TO THE POLICE, "false accusations"

So the 9.6% figure is an absolute minimum number.

In response to your comment
"we only talk about rape cases for which we are reasonably certain about what really happened. We shouldn't talk about accusations."

I would reply, "hey, we are MORE than reasonably certain what happened, because the official figures state that 9.6% of all reported rapes are quote false accusations unquote"

Incidentally, I must correct your 15% conviction rate...

the UK conviction rate is 8%

some of those are almost certainly unsafe....

Anonymous said...

"Today, respected media commentators show no hesitation in slinging bafflingly sexist attacks at high profile rape complainants: Kobe Bryant's accuser was no more than a 'mountain trash slut,' and the Duke complainant just a lying 'crypto-hooker'."

That might be some sort of point if these "bafflingly sexist attacks" weren't actually true. Not only were both accusations false, but as it turns out, the Duke accuser did use her stripping to as way to sell sex for money, and the semen from multiple men found on Bryant's accuser's underwear is evidence that she was promiscuous. Although I agree that calling her a "slut" is pejorative.

To answer SLWerner, it was Tucker Carlson who questioned that perhaps the standards that apply should be different when dealing with a "crypto-hooker".

Anonymous said...

As far as alcohol is concerned, an interesting scientific fact that campus feminists completely ignore is that alcohol increases testosterone in women as much as several times, but has no measurable effect or slightly decreases testosterone in men. (That men may be more sexual aggressive when is the result of disinhibition due to CNS effects.)

Norm said...

Based on the only two scientific, large-enough-scalse studies of rape that I know about (Kanin and McDowell), I really don't see where there is a set of widely disparate numbers out there or that we "really don't know..."
Yes, we DO know, 40-60%, with the only caveat being that the lower the percentage, the more likely that it's based only on recantations. The longer MR's agree with feminists on the uncertainty, the longer we are shooting ourselves in the foot. Also, that mentality weakens the impact of the two studies over time in peoples' minds, because their assumption is that those two studies themselves must be wildly uncertain. (saying the Kanin study is uncertain is mainly true in that we don't know the upper bound from that study; that's not the same as saying that not it's at least 40%.) A couple of other observations:

1) The MacDowell study gave the reasons for the recantations, so it is particularly useful.

2)The MacDowell study validates what various law enforcement officials have come forward (usually anonymously) and said: 50-70%.

3) What is often overlooked is that the MacDowell study was backed up by two equivalent studies in two towns (unnamed for fear of reprisal), and similar results were obtained.

I don't mean to be accusatory, but I think what is at work here is that even many MRA's simply do not want to believe that women lie this much. This supposition is built into all our natures - we have a tendency to 'big up' women.

Anonymous said...

@ Norm

I don't mean to be accusatory, but I think what is at work here is that even many MRA's simply do not want to believe that women lie this much. This supposition is built into all our natures - we have a tendency to 'big up' women.

Norm, you have hit the nail on the head.

AfOR

Pierce Harlan said...

You all are missing the point, and you need to follow what I'm saying because this is one thing I know I am right about. The total universe of claims we should be talking about are the ones for which we know the outcome. Here in the US, we are reasonably certain 15% are actual rapes (even though some men and boys are wrongly convicted); we also are reaonably certain that 41% according to Kanin's first study or 50% according to his follow-up at two universities, or McDowell's even higher figure -- are false. So let's use Kanin's 41%: that means we are reasonably certain 41 out of 56 rape claims are false. THAT'S the only fair way to look at this. When Kanin and McDowell did their studies, they did not say that ONLY 41 or 60 percent were false, they said THOSE ARE THE PERCENTAGES WE KNOW ARE FALSE. THE ACTUAL NUMBER CERTAINLY COULD BE HIGHER. A hell of a lot of claims, we just don't don't for certain and it's not fair or just to do as the feminists do: ASSUME they are all actual rapes.

If you want to challenge that -- and I welcome you to do so -- stick to what I'm saying and show me how I'm wrong. Don't go off on your own theories, which parrot the feminist paradigm of assuming the MINIMUM false rape claims are really the MAXIMUMS.

Anonymous said...

While I agree with what Mr. Harlan is saying, it would be beneficial if there were studies that were more recent than Kanin or McDowell.

Does anyone know where I can find the the percentage of rape reports according to the FBI Uniform Crime Reports that were “unfounded”?? I've been looking, but can't seem to find it anywhere.

Pierce Harlan said...

Anon, don't bother looking. Dr. Bruce Gross in his landmark piece "False Rape Allegations: An Assault on Justice," said that the FBI's unfounded rape stats -- which were 8 percent in 1995 and 15 percent in 1996 -- "are almost meaningless" because different jurisdictions from which the FBI collects the data use different definitions of "unfounded."

Again, the only thing any study ever does is tell us the number of of false rape claims, as a percentage of all rape claims made. NONE of the studies is able to tell us whether a large percentage of claims were true or false. The feminists insist that if we can't tell what happened with a rape claim, it must have been a rape. I suggest, take it out of the equation altogether.

Anonymous said...

Regardless, I would still like to find it. So if anyone knows, please post a link.

Norm said...

"When Kanin and McDowell did their studies, they did not say that ONLY 41 or 60 percent were false, they said THOSE ARE THE PERCENTAGES WE KNOW ARE FALSE. THE ACTUAL NUMBER CERTAINLY COULD BE HIGHER."

I'm not sure what your point is - practically nothing you've said disagrees with what I said, in fact in what I quoted above you are explicity agreeing: I said we are reasonably sure the Kanin result is a lower limit.

So, we don't know..if it's 50 or 60 or something - why should that keep us from coming forward and saying it's at least 40%? Or at least giving a number based on recantations? This idea of delaying until we know the exact percentage- we will NEVER know. That's not a reason to shoot holes in our feet.

Pierce Harlan said...

Anon, they haven't done those studies for TWELVE years. They are meaningless, so why you want them is beyong me.

Anon at 1:37-- I'm not sure what YOUR point is. Mine was clear and unequivocal. It is fair to say that 41 out of 56 rape claims are false, using Kanin's FIRST study. Get it?

Anonymous said...

@ Pierce

"It is fair to say that 41 out of 56 rape claims are false, using Kanin's FIRST study."

which works out at 73%

This compares well with my OFFICIAL UK GOVERNMENT figures, which say 86%, but based on a far larger sample of 16,000 alleged rapes, eg every one for a whole year, not just 56.

AfOR

Norm said...

Sorry Pierce, I was in a bad mood last night:)

" It is fair to say that 41 out of 56 rape claims are false"

Can we use that number and go forward with it, i.e., 'release' it to the public?

Pierce Harlan said...

Norm, I think that is a fair statement.

Anonymous said...

The number could be easilly uncovered...subpeona a sexual assault officer in a major city in the U.S, tell him to put away his re-definition of what the meaning of is, is: and tell us what the percentage is of rape claims that are false.
You see, these guys in the sexual assault offices have been conditioned in "semantics"..again in order to hide the truth from the public...which may just be an embarresment to the gender feminist community if the public were to find out.

Archivist said...

NO ONE can say with any degree of certainty what the number of false claims is. It is significant. Cops and the FBI don't adjudicate disputes in a full evidentiary hearing. The vast majority of disputes are never adjudicated, and all we can say is what we know. We will NEVER EVER EVER know the exact number, so it is a waste of time to look for it. Sorry for those who don't get it, or to those whocome to this board with an agenda. I am being as objective as I possibly can be about this. But I won't engage in guesswork.